The Empty Order Book

The Phone That Stopped Ringing

For decades, China bought half of America's soybeans. This year? Zero orders on the books thus far. The new marketing year starts in September. Today. That's $12.8 billion potentially gone from farms in Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.

And it's bigger than soy. Exports to China dropped 39% in a single year—taking down sorghum, cotton, beef, and nuts with it. In some cases, more than half of production suddenly has nowhere to go. And it’s showing in futures.

The Calendar Trap

Here's the cruel timing: Soybean harvest begins in September, and continues through October into mid-November. Corn harvest typically runs through October, with late-planted crops reaching maturity by October 25. But the tariff truce expires November 10th—right in the middle of harvest.

Farmers are cutting crops with no buyers lined up. The further into autumn we get without reaching an agreement, the worse the impacts will be.

From Surplus to Deficit

For 60 years, America was the world's grocery store. In 2019, that flipped. By 2025, we face a record $49.5B agricultural trade deficit. A 56% increase over 2024. We’re going backwards - faster.

China is moving on—booking 5M tons of soy from Argentina and Uruguay since September, with up to 10M expected next year. Our share of their imports has shrunk to 12%, while Brazil's climbed to 22%. Worse: China plans to cut soymeal use 10% by 2030, potentially halving demand for U.S. beans altogether.

When Agriculture Sneezes

Trade wars ripple fast. In 2018, cranberry prices collapsed 62%, hay exports fell 36%, ethanol 86%. The same pattern repeats: farmers lose, rural economies hollow out, and bailouts follow.

Congress just threw $66B at "relief." But you can't bailout your way back into lost markets. That's rent on an empty building.

The Missing Link

American farmers are world-class producers but trapped in fragile global supply chains. Wheat grown in Kansas might travel thousands of miles—only for the farmer to buy bread made from Canadian grain.

We've built a system with beautiful front doors but no hallways—great at exports, terrible at local access.

Infrastructure, Not Ideology

This isn't about government grocery stores. It's about infrastructure: the missing middle that connects producers to buyers at home. Think rural electrification in the 1930s—the government didn't sell power, it built the grid that communities still own today.

The same model could work for food:

• Regional Processing Hubs – mills, crushers, small protein plants.

• Distribution Networks – trucking and cold storage to connect farms to nearby markets.

• Value-Added Processing – let farmers sell oil, flour, or meal, not just raw commodities.

• Buyer Incentives – encourage schools, hospitals, and cafeterias to source regionally.

The Math

We already spend $66B on bailouts. That same money could fund infrastructure that lasts generations. Local markets don't replace exports—they backstop them. When China walks away, farmers still have customers.

The Choice

Keep writing checks to prop up fragile trade—or build resilient systems that survive it. Rural America deserves more than life support. The empty order book is a wake-up call. Time to build something better.

Sources

Trade Data:

• U.S. Agricultural Trade Data, USDA Economic Research Service

• "U.S. Agricultural Exports to China Fall 39%," Investigate Midwest, August 2025

• "China Remains Absent from US Soybean Market," Farm Policy News, August 2025

• "China Remains Absent from US Soybean Market," Farm Policy News, August 2025

• "$8 Soybeans? That's Reality for Some Farmers as China Remains Absent from Buying," AgWeb, August 2025

Financial Impact:

• "Record Agricultural Trade Deficit Projected," American Farm Bureau Federation, 2025

• "One Big Beautiful Bill Act: Agricultural Provisions," American Farm Bureau Federation

• "Rural America Economic Crisis," Fortune, August 2025

China Trade Patterns:

• "China Boosts Soybean Buys from Argentina, Uruguay," Reuters, August 2025

• "China Becoming Less Dependent on American Farmers," Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2024

• "The United States, Brazil, and China Soybean Triangle," farmdoc daily, February 2024

Historical Comparisons:

• "China-United States Trade War," Wikipedia (2018-2020 agricultural impacts)

• "Effects on US-China Soybean Trade," Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, 2022

Equipment & Rural Impact:

• "Farm Equipment Market Research 2025," Markets and Markets

• "Dealers Forecast New Equipment Revenue Declines," Farm Equipment Magazine, November 2024

• "Weak Demand Will Limit 2025 Farm Equipment Sales," FCC Economics, 2024

Government Response:

• "Agricultural Trade Promotion Programs," USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

• "Market Facilitation Program," USDA Farm Service Agency

• "National Corn Growers Raise Economic Crisis Alarms," NCGA, August 2025